Chelsea given 8% chance of winning 2025/26 Premier League

Chelsea have been handed just an 8.8% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy this season, according to Opta’s supercomputer.

In its 10,000 season simulations, the statistical model predicts the reigning FIFA Club World Cup champions will finish fourth, behind Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Enzo Maresca’s side head into the new campaign on the back of a convincing 3-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in the USA, a result that crowned them world champions and suggested they could be part of the title conversation.

Indeed, Chelsea showed their potential in the first half of last season, sitting second at the turn of the year, but a run of poor performances after January ultimately derailed their challenge.

Opta’s projections make Liverpool the clear favourites, with a 28.5% chance of securing the title. Arsenal, who have finished runners-up in each of the last three seasons, are given a 24.3% likelihood, while Manchester City follow with 18.8% as they seek to reclaim their crown.

Aston Villa and Newcastle United both hold a 5.1% chance, whereas Sunderland were the only side not to win the league in any of the simulations.

The model, which incorporates historical results, recent form, betting market odds and opponent strength, produced some intriguing results.

Notably, 19 of the 20 clubs won the title in at least one simulation, highlighting the competitive balance expected in the season ahead.

For Chelsea, the numbers also indicate a 40.4% probability of finishing in the top four, lower than the league’s traditional big three but still ahead of the chasing pack.

This forecast comes as Maresca continues to shape a young, attack-minded squad, with hopes of achieving greater consistency after last year’s improvement.

However, their preparations have been hampered by the news that defender Levi Colwill has suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury, likely ruling him out for much of the season.

Nevertheless, the Blues have been active in the transfer market, adding Estevão, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Jorrel Hato, Liam Delap and João Pedro, while also being linked with high-profile moves for Alejandro Garnacho and Xavi Simons.

Chelsea will begin their pre-season schedule with a home friendly against Bayer Leverkusen at Stamford Bridge. The match will give Maresca an opportunity to rotate his squad, test new tactical combinations and build match fitness ahead of the 2025/26 opener. You can read the full preview here.

The Blues last lifted the Premier League trophy in 2016/17, and while the statistical outlook appears modest, their recent global triumph and fresh squad additions suggest they could yet defy the predictions.